TUESDAY,  DECEMBER 2,  2008

I'M OFF TO A BRIEFING BY ANDREW McCARTHY, WHO PROSECUTED THE FIRST WORLD TRADE CENTER TERRORISTS.  WILL REPORT BACK TO YOU LATER.

DOW CLOSE - AT 4:51 P.M. ET:  The Dow closed up 270 points, to 8419.  Hey, let's smile.  The "investors" are back, right?

Well, there's this:  NEW YORK (AP) -- November U.S. vehicle sales at General Motors and Chrysler plunged more than 40 percent, while Ford's sales dropped 31 percent, crushing hopes that the industrywide drop in vehicle demand might be easing as the U.S. automakers prepare to state their second case for a federal bailout.

COMMENT:  The market news is injecting too much irrationality into our economic discussion, and too much fear.  We should begin with plans for a tax cut to stimulate the economy and give people confidence that they'll have some money to spend.  Then proceed from there.

THOUGHTFUL, PRUDENT INVESTING - AT 1:36 P.M. ET:  The Dow, after taking a beating yesterday, is up 263 at this hour.

COMMENT:  Another session filled with thoughtful, prudent investing.  Not.
Wall Street's image is awful, and isn't helped by these see-saw sessions where the main "players" - that's a common Wall Street term - are quick-buck artists, manipulators and short-term grabbers.  Felix Rohatyn, the distinguished investment banker, called the stock market a casino.  It isn't supposed to be, but that's what it's become.  The public regard for free enterprise is damaged by this wild-West mentality.

OBAMA AND THE RIGHT

Posted at 9:04 a.m. ET

Joel Mowbray, one of the best investigative reporters around, examines the results of the election and concludes that President-elect Obama needs the political right to survive because, contrary to the image created by some pundits, the nation didn't change much ideologically in 2008.  This may partially explain why Obama has moved to the center in many of his appointments:

The most under-reported story of the election is that conservative voters provided the margin of victory for Barack Obama—a finding that has dramatic implications for both Democrats and Republicans.

Normally winning with impressive margins in the popular vote and Electoral College would translate into a governing mandate. Obama’s victory was not an ideological one, however. The electorate is almost exactly as center-right as it was in 2004. The Bush 2004 voters who pushed Obama over the top rejected Bush and the GOP, but not conservative principles.

Some proof:

In 2004, a 49%-46% plurality of exit poll respondents said the government should not “do more to solve problems.” In the immediate aftermath of the meltdown on Wall Street that the media blamed on free markets run amok, a slim majority of voters, 51%, thought the government should do more.

And...

Defying conventional wisdom, Obama’s vaunted ground game only boosted liberal and youth turnout by one percent each of the total electorate. A detailed examination of exit polling suggests that the Democrat’s victory primarily was sparked by two key factors:

1) Many conservatives who used to consider themselves Republicans no longer do.

2) Almost one-fifth of Bush 2004 voters chose Obama, with the biggest defectors being conservative-leaning independents: that is “Security Moms” and Catholics...

...Self-identified conservatives in exit polling comprised 34% of voters in both 2004 and 2008, yet the number who called themselves Republican dropped from 37% to 32%.

There are other indications that conservative principles are alive and vigorous in 2008:

Even on what is presumed to be safe liberal territory—the environment—the electorate did not tilt leftward. As reported on the Wall Street Journal web site, “Among five major energy and environmental ballot initiatives from California to Missouri, all but one were voted down.”

Further...

Two key right-leaning constituencies deserted Republicans: “Security Moms” and Catholics. Though the media has made the “gender gap” a household term, the more apt classification was a “marriage gap.” Single women were heavily Democrat, and married women leaned Republican. “Security Moms” became the label for married mothers attracted to the hawkishness of the GOP.

And Catholics:

Falling from Bush’s 44% of the Latino vote to 31% clearly hurt McCain’s figures in the Catholic vote. But that drop alone could not account for much more than half of the loss he experienced overall among Catholics. The bulk of the remaining Catholic voters that switched from Bush in 2004 to Obama this year likely came from cultural conservatives, including so-called values voters and Reagan Democrats.

And the implications for the future:

Unlike most politicians who seek to define themselves sharply, Obama proudly defined himself as whatever different voters wanted him to be. Accomplishing this feat in a heated election was a tall order, but in governing, it becomes nearly impossible. In policy battles, there are winners and losers because lines are drawn, and sides must be taken.

For Obama to maintain the coalition that elected him, he needs to come down on the right side of that line more often than most in his party would like.

From Mowbray's mouth to you-know-whose ears.  Obama needs to maintain that coalition to become a two-term president.  MoveOn.org never elected any president, and Obama's political team knows that.  They can read the numbers. 

Bill Clinton understood the need for centrism, too, and became the first Democratic president since Roosevelt to be elected to two full terms.  Obama's first appointments show a centrist bent.  If he governs center or center-left, and succeeds in his policies, he will probably win again in 2012.  If he veers left, to his ideological roots, he will get applause on the West Side of Manhattan and in the teeming precincts of Hollywood, and be sent back to his gracious Chicago home in four years.

I'll bet center left. 

December 2, 2008.      Permalink           

GEORGIA ON OUR MIND - AT 7:50 A.M. ET:  Please remember that the Georgia runoff for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republican Saxby Chambliss is today.  It's critical.  The Dems are within two Senate seats of having a filibuster-proof majority.  If Chambliss loses to challenger Jim Martin, that will be one seat, and Minnesota is still undecided.  However, Chambliss is favored.

THE BIG DIP - AT 7:38 A.M. ET:  Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy, now officially in recession, may be in the midst of the longest slump in the post- World War II era as job losses mount and credit dries up...

...“We’re going on 12 months already, and we’re just getting started,” said Stephen Stanley, chief U.S. economist at RBS Greenwich Capital in Greenwich, Connecticut.

COMMENT:  Let's see how long it takes, after Mr. Obama assumes office, for the press to stop calling it the Bush recession. A year?  Two years?

RECOLLECTION - AT 7:25 A.M. ET:  It was 66 years ago today that Enrico Fermi and his team achieved the first sustained nuclear chain reaction, working under the west stands of Stagg Field at the University of Chicago.  It was barely more than two and a half years later that the first nuclear device was set off in New Mexico.  We should keep that quick timeline in mind when weighing the seriousness of the Iran nuclear threat.

BAMWATCH + HILLWATCH

Posted at  7:12 a.m. ET

The Wall Street Journal has carefully considered the new romance between President-elect Barack Obama and President-of-the-world Select Hillary Rodham Clinton, and has decided that there may be problems there.  We're inclined to agree, although we're deeply offended that anyone could attribute personal motives to either individual:

Barack Obama's choice of Hillary Clinton to be his Secretary of State is either a political master stroke, or a classic illustration of the signature self-confidence that will come back to haunt him. We're inclined toward the latter view, but then Mr. Obama is the one who has to live with her -- and her husband.

What happened to that old-time respect for our leaders?  Ah, those were the days.

The President-elect's political calculation seems clear enough: Better to have the Clinton machine as allies than as critics on the outside of his Administration.

You don't really believe our new president thinks that way, do you?

These political calculations must be predominant, because Mrs. Clinton brings no special policy expertise to the job. Her best attribute may be her undeniable work ethic. She has focused on foreign policy in her Senate committee assignments, but without much notable influence on policy or events.

But she already knows the dinner customs in so many countries.

It's also strange if Mr. Obama is trying to invoke the Clinton Presidency as a foreign-policy golden age. We recall it mostly as an era of illusory peace as problems festered with too little U.S. attention. Al Qaeda was left unchecked, Saddam Hussein banished U.N. inspectors and exploited Oil for Food, North Korea embarked on a secret nuclear program, Russia's post-Cold War spring faded, and Pakistan's A.Q. Khan spread nuclear-bomb technology around the world.

More quibbling.  These right-wing journalists.

Mr. Obama's biggest gamble is associating his Presidency with the Clinton political circus. At least as Secretary of State, Mrs. Clinton will have a specific role, as opposed to the ill-defined mandate of a Vice President...

...But that still leaves Bill Clinton and his gift both of irrepressible gab and for inevitable controversy.

Hmm.  Yeah, maybe there's a point there.  Where is Monica, by the way?

Given the Clinton history with the Riadys of Indonesia, Johnny Chung, the Lippo Group and Arkansas compadre Thomas "Mack" McLarty's business travels through the Americas, we hope the President-elect knows what he's getting into. The Senate has an obligation to inspect and make public the Clinton global fund-raising machine check by check, with names, dates and precise amounts.

So many embarrassments, so little time.

In choosing Mrs. Clinton, Mr. Obama is also hiring someone he can't easily fire. This is usually a mistake, as President Bush learned with Colin Powell.

And that hire was a major mistake.  Finally...

...the transition spin that Mr. Obama's Cabinet choices are inspired by Abraham Lincoln's "Team of Rivals" also suggest more than a little hubris. Honest Abe had to deal with jealous advisers and treacherous generals to win the Civil War. We're not sure even that would be adequate preparation for the raucous, uncontrollable political entitlement that has always driven the Clintons.

I wouldn't call that a vote of confidence, would you?  Well, at least Obama could send her on a round-the-world trip lasting four years.  The amen press would define that as a foreign-policy masterstroke.

December 2, 2008.      Permalink          

MONDAY,  DECEMBER 1,  2008

DRIVING READERS CRAZY - AT 11:16 P.M. ET:  The Detroit News online ran this headline today:  Ford puts Volvo unit up for sale.

But the story reads this way:   "Ford Motor Co. said this morning the economic decline and tight credit markets have forced it to consider the sale of its Volvo Cars unit.  Ford said the possible sale of Volvo is part of its "strategic review" to try and strengthen its balance sheet. Last year Ford sought buyers for Volvo, but later said the company wasn't for sale."

COMMENT:  In other words, they're considering selling the Volvo unit, but have not put it up for sale.  That's Journalism 101.

GREAT ANTI-TERROR IDEA, FROM MUSLIMS - AT 8:55 P.M. ET:  From Fox News:  The Muslim Council of India is telling the nation's cemeteries that the bodies of gunmen killed by commandos in the Mumbai terror siege should not be buried on Indian soil, The Times of India reported Monday.  The religious organization told The Times that they were acting on complaints from several Muslim groups demanding that the bodies not be laid to rest in any Indian cemetery.

COMMENT:  This vigorous statement against terrorism, by Muslims, should be widely publicized.  Let's see if anyone but Fox pays any attention.

MUMBAI - THE REALITY

Posted at 8:26 P.M. ET:

How should we interpret the attacks in Mumbai?  Arthur Herman, a distinguished military historian, writes in National Review Online that the standard interpretations are probably wrong.  He gives his analysis, which seems sound because it reflects historical experience:

It’s been fascinating, but also disheartening, to watch the mainstream media completely miss the real story about the 60-hour terrorist rampage in Mumbai, India — which may have killed as many as 300 people, and has certainly injured hundreds more. What died in Mumbai — besides scores of innocent people in their hotel rooms and at the Mumbai Jewish Cultural Center and on the blood-drenched platform at Chatrapathi Sivaji railway terminal — were certain illusions about the war on terror, and how to deal with terrorists.

And...

Many put the blame for the attack on years of Indian-Pakistani hostility and tension. In fact, relations between the two countries have never been warmer. This past month, Pakistan’s new president stunned and delighted Indians by publicly renouncing any first use of nuclear weapons. Violence in Kashmir, the principal bone of contention between India and Pakistan since 1947, is on the decline.

So why the attacks?

This is precisely what the terrorists don’t want, of course. It’s the fact that tensions over Kashmir are diminishing that prompted them to attack on the November 28 — just as al-Qaeda blew up Samarra’s Golden Mosque in Iraq back in 2006 in order to keep Shias and Sunnis hating and killing each other. The illusion that formal agreements between peoples and governments — whether between India and Pakistan or Israel and the Palestinian Authority — can somehow defuse the terrorist problem was the among the first casualties in Mumbai. Terrorists see it the other way around: the relaxation of tensions is a problem requiring bloodshed.

We saw that in the Israeli-Arab conflict in the 1990s.  As the possibility of a peace agreement drew closer, terrorism increased.

Islamic terrorists don’t want justice or respect for their beliefs, or restoration of some imaginary homeland. They want violence and death.

And, according to Herman, another illusion died in Mumbai:

...that democratic nations can somehow opt out of the war on terror. India has largely operated on that assumption since 2001, even though it is home to the second-largest Muslim population in the world after Indonesia, and wedged between two neighbors — Pakistan and Bangladesh — where Islamic terrorist groups operate in relative freedom...

...India’s record on counterterrorism is abysmal, almost deliberately so. The government in New Delhi steadfastly maintains a wall of separation between law-enforcement agencies like the one that used to separate the FBI and CIA before the Patriot Act, and keeps counterterrorist units underfunded and undermanned. It has repeatedly given way to the demands of Islamic radical groups and fundamentalist lobbyists in the name of “cultural sensitivity.” India was the first non-Islamic country to ban Salman Rushdie’s Satanic Verses back in 1988.

Did them a lot of good.

In short, the Indian government has waged the war on terror in much the same way that liberals and many Democrats have been urging the U.S. to carry it out. The result is that more than 4,000 Indians have died in attacks since 2004 — more than any other nation in the war on terror besides Iraq.

We haven't been given much of this information by our media.

One reason the Mumbai terrorists sought out Brits and Americans to kill is that they can’t get at them in their own countries. The latest report is that those “evil” U.S. intelligence agencies had actually intercepted threats about possible attacks on hotels in Mumbai, and passed them on to their Indian counterparts — who then failed to take action.

Britain and the United States have learned how to deal effectively with terrorism the hard way. Maybe this time Indians will, as well.

We hope so, but much will depend on the example set by the Obama White House.  If Obama is smart, practical and honest, he'll see the truth in what writers like Arthur Herman are saying.  If he settles back to the old liberal "narrative," he'll give aid and comfort to those in India, and elsewhere, who believe appeasement and indifference are the preferred strategies, and we'll hear more illusionary talk about "root causes" than strategies for preventing the next attack.

December 1, 2008.      Permalink          

ELECTION TOMORROW, DON'T PANIC - AT 7:27 P.M. ET:  Georgia voters go to the polls tomorrow to settle the Senate race between incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss and Democratic challenger Jim Martin.  This is a runoff, since no one got 50-percent in the November 5th voting.  Georgia and Minnesota are the two Senate races still left undecided.  The Dems need both to reach 60 votes in the Senate, a filibuster-proof number.  But last-minute polls have Republican Chambliss about five points ahead.

HE SPEAKS, HE LIVES - AT 7:21 A.M. ET:  From The Politico:   CHICAGO – Amid questions about his influence in the Obama transition and the potential for him to be overshadowed by Hillary Clinton as secretary of state, Vice President-elect Joe Biden spoke publicly on Monday for the first time since the election 26 days ago.  He stepped to the podium at the Chicago Hilton to congratulate Obama for bringing together “one of the most talented national security teams ever assembled.”

COMMENT:  I wonder how many Obama people had to clear that. 

WHOOPS, AT 4:47 P.M. ET:  A funny thing happened to the Dow on the way to an Obama rally.  It plunged 680 points today, to 8,150, wiping out half of last week's rally.  The National Bureau of Economic Research said today that the U.S. has been in a recession for a year. 

MUMBAI TERRORISTS AT LARGE? - AT 9:17 A.M. ET:  From The Times of London:   At least five terrorist gunmen have evaded capture in Mumbai and could make a secondary strike on India's financial capital, it was feared this morning.  Indian security forces are officially claiming that just ten militants – nine of whom were killed and one caught alive – were behind a co-ordinated terror attack that claimed nearly 200 lives.

However, the hijacked Indian fishing boat used by the gunmen to approach Mumbai, the crew of which were also slaughtered, had equipment for 15 men on board when it was discovered adrift off the city shore – suggesting that several gunmen could still be at large.

STILL IN THE TANK FOR OBAMA - AT 8:19 A.M. ET:  We just love these little word games that journalists play to do their bit for Barack.  Consider this New York Times headline today:  A Handpicked Obama Team for a Shift in Foreign Policy.

COMMENT:  Really?  Handpicked?  The term is used to make it look as if the selections were determined oh so carefully.  But has any president not handpicked his team?  Has it ever been done any other way?  By computer?  Lottery?  Phoning a friend?  If it had been George W. Bush the headline would have read:  Bush leans on Washington insiders.  You can bet on it. 

LIKE CLOCKWORK.   A FEW MINUTES AFTER WE PUBLISHED RENEE NIELSEN'S PICTURE, JUST BELOW, WE RECEIVED THIS DISPATCH FROM HER, IN MUMBAI:

It's been interesting reading in the papers and watching the news today.  It is just become accepted (whether true or not) that Pakistan is behind the attacks.  No agency is specifically saying the Pak gov't was direcly involved. However, allowing terrorist groups such as Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT) to operate on its soil makes them accomplices.  Reports also talk about the US being concerned about escalation between the two nations, but Indians seem to be preoccupied with the internal blame game right now.

The Times of India reports that three RDX bombs were found around the Taj and Trident hotels.  One bomb was kept in a metal container inside a backpack with a timer. It doesn't appear that it was set because they report a nine-volt battery would have given it power.  

The political casualties have started:  Union Home Minister Shrivraj Patil has quit under pressure for lack of confidence and his inability to protect India from continuous terror attacks.  

Two others have gone as well, including Maharastra Chief Minister Vilasro Deshmukh.  This guy took his son (an actor) and, allegedly, a movie director named Ram Gopal Varma, who is known to make "thrillers or real life themes," according to the Hindustan Times, down to the Taj for a tour of the devistation.  I write allegedly only because Deshmukh says that Varma's presense was a coincidence and that he didn't arrange it.  It doesn't matter, as the media believes it, and people are outraged at these "VIP" tours, regardless of who went.   Ultimately, Deshmukh had to resign due to heavy opposition from all sides.  

Deputy Chief Minister RR Patil has also resigned.  He started a controversy by saying that the attacks were "a small incident."  Ouch.  

Different politicians are saying that it's not the politicians' fault the attacks happened, but was a failure of all agencies.  

There is a major election in January.  The finger pointing only took a few days to get started.

The Leopold Cafe re-opened for just 30 minutes because it was mobbed by media, customers and concerned police. The owner, Farzad Jehani, wanted to make a statement that he won't be intimidated by terrorism.  It looks as if 10 people died inside during the attacks.  

There are lots of reports coming out that fishermen, a few months ago, told authorities that RDX was coming into the ports, and that the authorities didn't act on the information.  There are more reports that the Indian Navy and Coast Guard also didn't act on intel tips, etc.  

As for my opinion:  This is a big, messy, chaotic country. The Indian police forces, military and their equipment, transport, and even their leadership are beyond inadequate. Even so, many did lay down their lives to stop the terrorists.  They're being treated as heroes now (martyrs) for India.  It's very sad watching the families mourn.  The Indian media has no problem putting a camera in their faces to see if they can score an interview.

We look forward to more from Renee.  She provides these little tidbits and insights that we're not getting elsewhere.

RENEE

Posted at 7:19 a.m. ET

A number of readers have remarked on the outstanding work done by Renee Nielsen during the tragic hours of the Mumbai siege.  Her dispatches added depth and insight to our reports. 

Renee is president of Republicans Abroad in India.  As you've seen, she's intelligent, lucid and highly perceptive.  Here's a picture of her taken at an Indian festival in September.  Now you can associate a face with the name.

Renee's father, by the way, is a retired Air Force pilot who flew F4 Phantoms during the Vietnam War.  He was retrained to fly F16s and became a member of the Minnesota Air National Guard, based in Duluth.  He retired from the Air Guard as vice commander of the 148th Fighter Group.   

We look forward to hearing more from Renee.

December 1, 2008.      Permalink          

KRISTOL ON JIHAD

Posted at 7:10 a.m. ET

It doesn't take long after an event like Mumbai for the usual suspects to make their way into the marketplace of bad ideas.  I wrote here earlier that the American journalism we saw during the awful siege was actually pretty good, in some cases excellent.  But now the "scholars" are weighing in, each one more profound than the next.  You know what to expect.  Bill Kristol provides the answers:

Consider first an op-ed article in Sunday’s Los Angeles Times by Martha Nussbaum, a well-known professor of law and ethics at the University of Chicago. The article was headlined “Terrorism in India has many faces.” But one face that Nussbaum fails to mention specifically is that of Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Islamic terror group originating in Pakistan that seems to have been centrally involved in the attack on Mumbai.

This is because Nussbaum’s main concern is not explaining or curbing Islamic terror. Rather, she writes that “if, as now seems likely, last week’s terrible events in Mumbai were the work of Islamic terrorists, that’s more bad news for India’s minority Muslim population.” She deplores past acts of Hindu terror against India’s Muslims. She worries about Muslim youths being rounded up on suspicion of terrorism with little or no evidence. And she notes that this is “an analogue to the current ugly phenomenon of racial profiling in the United States.”

So jihadists kill innocents in Mumbai — and Nussbaum ends up decrying racial profiling here. Is it just that liberal academics are required to include some alleged ugly American phenomenon in everything they write?

And...

Jim Leach is also a professor, at Princeton, but he’s better known as a former moderate Republican congressman from Iowa who supported Barack Obama this year. His contribution over the weekend was to point out on Politico.com that “the Mumbai catastrophe underscores the importance of vocabulary.” This wouldn’t have been my first thought.

No, mine neither.  But we don't teach in the Ivy League.

But Leach believes it’s very important that we consider the Mumbai attack not as an act of “war” but as an act of “barbarism.”

It's something, Leach says "that can occur anywhere, anytime..."

Just folks.  Just ordinary folks.  Oh, yes, Leach does concede that "it may be true" that the murderers saw themselves as justified in their attacks, that they may have had a rationale for killing people of different nationalities.  Kristol replies:

But Leach doesn’t want to discuss that rationale — even though it’s not hard to find. Ten minutes of Googling will bring you to a fine article, “The Ideologies of South Asian Jihadi Groups,” from the April 2005 issue of Current Trends in Islamist Ideology. It’s by the respected journalist and diplomat Husain Haqqani, who, as it happens, is now Pakistan’s ambassador to the United States.

Lashkar-e-Taiba, Haqqani explains, is a jihadi group of Wahhabi persuasion, “backed by Saudi money and protected by Pakistani intelligence services.” He notes that “Lashkar-e-Taiba has adopted a maximalist agenda for global jihad.” Indeed, the political arm of the group has conveniently published a pamphlet, “Why Are We Waging Jihad?,” that lays out all kinds of reasons why the United States, Israel and India are “existential enemies of Islam.”

And...

But if terror groups are to be defeated, it is national governments that will have to do so. In nations like India (and the United States), governments will have to call on the patriotism of citizens to fight the terrorists. In a nation like Pakistan, the government will have to be persuaded to deal with those in their midst who are complicit. This can happen if those nations’ citizens decide they don’t want their own country to be dishonored by allegiances with terror groups. Otherwise, other nations may have to act.

Kristol lays it out directly, and clearly.  His argument is in the real world not the academic world.  It will not get him dinner invitations in Cambridge or Princeton, but he is correct.  The last thing we need now is for the punditocracy and the academics to overintellectualize what has happened, and we fear that this is what might occur, just as it occurred in the universities after 9-11.  Former Congressman Leach has been captured by the academic mentality.  That mentality, as it is currently expressed, will not serve the nation well.

December 1, 2008.      Permalink